Proposals to reduce demand fall into two categories:
The first category is to reduce demand by reducing car dependence in wealthy nations, which sounds doable in theory but can have significant implications for GDP and the economy. For example, in the U.S., that could require the migration of 50% to 75% of the population from rural and low-density communities to medium-density communities to take advantage of cycling, biking, walking, and mass transit. This migration would impact hundreds of millions of Americans and require significant policy, urban, infrastructure, and transportation changes that could take decades to implement and bring their own challenges.
The second proposed solution would limit access to modern technology like air conditioning (AC) and electric vehicles (EVs) in developing countries like India and in Africa. While climate change affects the entire planet, poorer countries are more severely affected, and their need for AC to reduce heat stroke and improve daily life is already significant. When Harvard China Project researchers modeled future air conditioning demand, they found an enormous gap between current AC capacity (2.8 billion people live in the hottest parts of the world, but only 8% of them have home AC) and the AC capacity needed by 2050 to save lives. In addition, a World Bank study of 20 developing countries found that EVs would be an economic and environmental win for more than half of those countries. While it is essential to dig into how to reduce the overall demand for critical metals to attain net-zero goals, it’s clear that the solution needs to be more practical and humane.
