The International Energy Agency forecasts that the secondary supply of batteries and the reuse of nickel will represent just 3% of total demand in 2030 and 10% in 2040. There just is not enough material in circulation for recycling to move the needle in the next 25 years. To help close the demand gap, mining for new metals will still be essential.
Substitutions come with severe compromises, such as reduced driving range.
Without new mineral sources, the only remaining option would be a diminished economy—families having one less car or turning off the air conditioner, or denying developing countries access to economic growth and the greater carbon intensity it brings.
